Saturday, July 2, 2022

Startup Professionals Musings

Startup Professionals Musings


All New Venture Opportunities Come With Unknown Risks

Posted: 02 Jul 2022 07:05 AM PDT

Opportunities-come-with-riskOutside of dreams, there is no real business opportunity without risk. Serious entrepreneurs know that, but too many "wannabes" still fall for that elusive get-rich-quick scheme with no risk. As an active angel investor, I still hear entrepreneurs asserting large opportunities with minimal risk and no competition. My conclusion either way is that they have no market, or haven't looked.

According to the classic book by serial entrepreneur and former race car driver Tom Panaggio, "The Risk Advantage: Embracing the Entrepreneur's Unexpected Edge," smart business owners embrace two essential risks to every opportunity – decision and change. First, they decide on a direction to jump, and then they make adjustments and innovations to keep going and growing.

In simple terms, the way you balance risk and opportunity is to look at both as two sides of the same coin. Obviously you are looking for the opportunity side to be bigger than the risk side. Great entrepreneurs have learned how to realistically assess and manage both sides of the coin in the following business opportunity and risk categories:

  1. Strategic. Visionary entrepreneurs tend to identify and map strategic new opportunities, rather than grow existing current ones, based on market insights emerging technology. The risks in new opportunities are usually not evident, so the challenge here is to reduce the probability that the assumed risks actually materialize and to improve the company's ability to manage or contain the risk events, should they occur.

  1. Financial. Both risks and opportunities in this area can arise from many aspects of your startup, before and after product development. First you need to assess the risks and value of investor funding and carrying debt. Then you walk the delicate balance between burn rates, revenue flows versus expenses, investment in marketing, and employees.

  1. Operational. Once a business is operational, the opportunity can be maximized, and risk managed through best-of-breed processes, and a rules-based control model. Examples are the risks from employees' unauthorized, illegal, unethical, or inappropriate actions and the risks from breakdowns in routine processes.

  1. Growth. The way you scale your business is a huge balancing act between risk and opportunity. You can grow organically, or stretch out with big capital investments for volume and reach. Grow too fast, and risk quality and delivery ability, or go slowly only to be overtaken by your competitors or a new technology. Find the balance.

For entrepreneurs, both Panaggio and I agree that the first step is adopting a winner's mindset, and not become a prisoner of hope. When entrepreneurs become prisoners of hope, they look for others to solve their problem. After they decide to be a winner, the key is to embrace risk, rather than fight it, which gives you the real advantage:

  • Embrace the risk of failure. Every entrepreneur must realize that failure is not defeat, but a signal that it is necessary to invoke the two essential risks: decide that change is necessary, and change. Every investor believes that entrepreneurs learn more from failures than from successes. Short-term failures lead to long-term successes.
  • Embrace the risk of proactive marketing. Marketing is fraught with risk, but playing it safe or no marketing is the ultimate risk. Proactive marketing is a marketing strategy that focuses on one objective – to generate customers now. Look at marketing as an investment, not an expense. Risk being known for who you are, as well as what you sell.
  • Embrace the risk of standing in your own line. All entrepreneurs should face the risk of being one of their own customers, by using their own products and standing in their own customer service lines. Only shortsighted leaders assume that customers have unreasonable expectations, or their demands will increase once you have a relationship.

Embracing risk and learning from your mistakes really is an entrepreneur's edge, since only startups and small businesses can afford to fail quickly, maybe multiple times, and all the while having the ability to pivot quickly to achieve success. In fact, these are the keys to balancing risks against the opportunities. When was the last time you felt your business was in balance?

Marty Zwilling

Should You Negotiate Ownership Options In A Startup?

Posted: 01 Jul 2022 07:05 AM PDT

negotiate-stock-optionsWouldn't you like to be one of the lucky people who joined Google and Facebook when these were startups, and now be a multi-millionaire or better? So people ask me "How many shares should I ask for or expect when I join a startup today?" In reality, the number of shares doesn't mean anything – it's your percent of the total that you need to negotiate.

For example, 200,000 shares may sound like a lot, but if the startup has issued 20 million (a common starting point), that's just 1% of the company. By the way, you will normally only be offered "options," which vest over a 4-year period after a 1-year "cliff." That means you will get none of these until after you work for one year, and the total only if you stay for four years.

Plus you have to remember that these 200,000 shares could still be worth nothing in four years, depending on the "strike price" today, compared to the market price four years from now. Many employees forget that there isn't even a market for startup stock, until after the company has gone public, which hasn't happened positively to many companies in the last few years.

Thus, options don't "pay the mortgage" today, so to speak. Unless you have a sizable nest egg, or a working spouse with an income to support you, I would recommend that you consider any stock options as a "potential bonus," rather than a key part of your compensation for joining a startup.

With all that said, here are some "rule of thumb" guidelines on what might be a reasonable offer, as summarized from a classic article by Guy Kawasaki, and based on discussions I hear rattling around the investor community.

  • CEO brought in to replace the founder, 5 - 10%
  • CTO, CFO, VP of Marketing or Sales, 1.5 - 3%
  • Chief Engineer or Architect, 1 - 1.5%
  • Advisory Board Member, 1%
  • Senior Engineer, .3 - .7%
  • Product Manager, .2 - .3%

If you are not on this list, just worry about getting whatever your peers are getting. It never hurts to ask in a job interview what stock options are available, and don't fall for the offer which promises to "work out the equity terms later."

Obviously, what you get will vary depending on what you bring to the company, and what the market will bear. The numbers I mentioned don't have a level of precision that can be associated with a particular geography, or a particular business type. Offers near the high end of a range will likely come with a lower cash salary, maybe even 50% of the going rate.

Any offers of equity compensation before the first round of institutional capital should be considered purely speculative. You should also assume that your percentage will go down through dilution as the company raises additional rounds, and offer sizes will go down as the company grows.

Your compensation is the total package of stock plus salary plus benefits. At best, you should view stock as "deferred compensation" or a "bonus," which has no value today, and a risk for the future that is much higher than mutual funds, or a conventional balanced public stock portfolio. Yet it has been a source of great wealth to a tiny percentage of people.

Couple all this with the fact that working at a startup is much tougher than working at bigger companies – despite all the hype you see about startups which provide free food, foosball tables, and totally flexible hours. Generally, less structure means more stress, and fewer people means higher expectations, longer hours, and a job that may be gone tomorrow.

The bottom line is that you shouldn't even think about joining a startup, stock or no stock, unless you believe in it and are ready for the adventure of your life. It will always be a learning experience, but it may be a bumpy ride to nowhere. It's a huge gamble. How many gamblers do you personally know that have won big?

Marty Zwilling

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